(Bloomberg) — Hedge funds have capitulated on their short-dollar bets after surging Treasury yields upended a favorite global macro strategy. Leveraged funds flipped to become net buyers of the world’s reserve currency during the week of March 16 — a tumultuous period that saw Treasury yields breaching key levels on feverish inflation fears. Data from Commodity Futures Trading Commission show that they added bearish bets on the yen and euro and switched from bullish positions on the New Zealand dollar.
The great unwind may just be gaining traction, some strategists said.
“It is the bond market that has been driving the U.S. dollar in the past couple of months, and it appears to be intensifying,” said Alvin T. Tan, head of Asia foreign-exchange strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “I would expect further short-covering versus the U.S. dollar.”
An intensifying debate over the pace of inflation gains has split investors, with some seeing Treasury yields soaring to 2% as a global recovery takeoff with vaccine rollouts and stimulus spending. That, in turn, is trouncing one of Wall Street’s most popular macro calls of 2021. Bloomberg data shows that holding dollar shorts would have served traders a 1.8% loss this year after being a profitable strategy in eight of the nine months through to December. Dollar buying by hedge funds rose the most since August 2014.
According to an analysis by Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. strategists, including Khoon Goh. “With U.S. 10-year bond yields poised to rise further, expect financial market volatility to increase,” he said. Hedge funds’ long dollar positions climbed to 2,414 contracts, compared with shorts of 62,781 a week earlier, according to CFTC data on seven significant currencies aggregated by Bloomberg. It is the first time they have been bullish on the greenback since November.