According to University of Sydney modeling, the current level of social distancing in Sydney is inadequate to control the COVID-19 outbreak, with residents needing to further reduce social interactions such as shopping. The modeling, which analyzed the current situation until 13 July, found that only about 40 percent of the Sydney population observed social distancing. Social distancing compliance would need to be at 70 percent for case numbers to reduce after two months and 80 percent to see a reduction of cases after one month, said Professor Mikhail Prokopenko, COVID-19 modeler and Director of the University of Sydney’s Centre for Complex Systems.
“Compliance with 80 percent social distancing would mean that four out of five people must drastically reduce their contact with others to just 10 percent of what they normally do,” Professor Prokopenko said in a statement. Our modeling indicates that the level of social distancing currently attained in Sydney is inadequate for outbreak control. NSW reported 65 new local COVID-19 cases on Thursday, with 28 people out and about in the community while infectious. The number of new topics is down from the 97 cases reported on Wednesday, which Premier Gladys Berejiklian said showed the lockdown measures were “having an impact.